As a result, at times I felt the author's thread was being lost or scattered; however, upon reflection I realized it was part of the nature of making prediction. The unfortunate thing is that the same happens or happened previously in the national intelligence services as well. “Superforecasting is the most important scientific study I’ve ever read on prediction.” — Cass R. Sunstein , The Bloomberg View "Just as modern medicine began when a farsighted few began to collect data and keep track of outcomes, to trust objective 'scoring' over their own intuitions, it's time now for similar demands to be made of the experts who lead public opinion. How much overlap does this book have with Nate Silver's book? No scores were kept on the accuracy levels. art, book review, prediction, superforecasting Today’s book review is Superforecasting: The art and science of Prediction , by Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner. “If you don’t get this elementary, but mildly unnatural, mathematics of elementary probability into your repertoire, then you go through a long life like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.”, “For scientists, not knowing is exciting. When it comes to forecasting, most pundits and professionals do little better than chimps with dartboards, according to Phillip Tetlock, who ought to know because he has spent a good deal of his life keeping track. Find helpful customer reviews and review ratings for Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction at Amazon.com. It details findings from The Good Judgment Project. As detailed in the book, the first thing a superforecaster would do is break down the problem into easier-to-answer sub-problems. Except it isn't really, that is just what they are selling it as. No scores were kept on the accuracy levels of the forecasts, therefor it was impossible to improve as well. Are we able to predict the exchange rate between the Euro and the dollar on December 31st of this year? I think this is a must read for economists. During the first hundred pages, I was sure to give the book a perfect score. The contribution is that Tetlock has brought these idea. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future―whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life―and is destined to become a modern classic. Basically, requires the same skills as anything: pay attention, evaluate yourself, know your blindspots, be humble, practice. This book draws on the work behind "Thinking Fast and Slow", which would make a great companion read. Other than it’s good and the author Phil Tetlock is an extremely well regarded social scientist. Tetlock, along with his research partner and wife Barbara Mellers, advertised far and wide to recruit people, eventually bringing together thousands of laypeople in a team he called the Good Judgment Project (GJP). are often considered professionals even though they may actually be amateurs. It's very well written and structured but I just decided half way through that the subject wasn't for me. This could involve consulting experts and talking with other forecasters; I simply looked at the average forecast on the Good Judgment Open site, which happened to be slightly less confident in the 31–40% range than I was, and moved my forecast toward it. It was interesting reading, full of interesting stories and examples. Category: Business | Psychology Category: Business | Psychology. We’d love your help. Sometimes it seems he is excusing wrong predictions by finding weasel words in them or interpreting them kindly instead of using the intended assertion. It definitely expanded my critical eye when it comes to experts, claims of fact, etc. It sucks when an audiobook is penned by two people but you hear a lot of “I” and “me”. What about the middling ranges of 31–40% and 41–50%? The first question I decided to forecast read: “What will Gallup report President Trump’s approval rating to be on 1 August 2017?”. The book also showed what it takes to be an excellent forecaster. The point Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner are trying to make is that in the field of forecasting we seldom measure the accuracy of a prediction retrospectively, it applies especially to talking heads giving vague opinions often with no timeframes in media about the trends in the stock market, crisis in Syria, results of next elections etc. Every reaction that I run has an implicit prediction: I predict that mixing such-and-such reagents together will produce the desired compound. Review Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Many of my friends were recommending this book to me and now that I've read it, I regret not doing it sooner. Yes, run. Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. It starts off well with a discussion of Archie Cochrane and evidence-based medicine (EBM), but then it bizarrely ignores the core concepts of EBM. Maybe, stay alert / run. And also because he’s a journalist and because he can write. If the medium for predictions is ambiguous English, how are we supposed to evaluate and therethrough make anyone accountable for their predictions? The author takes on it and gives and excellent overview and analysis of the state of affairs in the prediction and forecasting world, and introduces some big achievers in this area – superforecasters. However, the majority of the book focuses on a US government intelligence project called IARPA, designed to use everyday citizens to make statistical pred. Brian is a PhD student in synthetic organic chemistry, and his research focuses on the total synthesis of natural products. Read full review. Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction / Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner. After superforecasters make an initial estimate, they monitor the news for any important information that would have bearing on their forecasts, and then update their forecasts accordingly. In general, scientists predict events in the world using tools embedded within some theoretical framework. Authors: Daniel Buncic. 41–50%: 12% How Can We Know? Evolutionarily, we've developed a simple three-dial system for making decision: Do I see a huge dangerous predator? By Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner Daniel Buncic University of St. Gallen, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, Bodanstrasse 6, 9000 St. Gallen, Switzerland; daniel.buncic@gmail.com; Tel. The signal-to-noise ratio of this book: maximum. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. Superforecasting—predicting events that will occur in the future—is not only possible; it accounts for an entire industry. Provably Beneficial Artificial Intelligence. Throughout, Superforecasting gives plentiful examples of how to apply the habits of superforecasters to your own probability estimates, facilitated by Tetlock and Gardner’s clear and easy-to-read writing. The problem here is that the truth of that belief is not self-evident, and there are always numerous possibilities that the future will change. by PHILIP E. TETLOCK & DAN GARDNER. The other two are Kahneman's. A lot of his findings appear to be common sense, i.e. The book made me feel like it had been written for me, someone that don't know much about predictions and forecasts, but feels like he could be good at it. It is also a manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. It provides a review of some of the worst forecasts in history, and also gives a fairly personal account of a number of “ ordinary ” individuals that Philip Tetlock got to know rather well during various forecasting tournaments and research projects that he was involved in 1. I followed the Gallup polls and adjusted my forecast every few days, although I ended up never straying too far from my initial estimate. The contribution is that Tetlock has brought these ideas together in one place and really proved that applying them can produce forecasts that are significantly better than other approaches. Naively, you might be tempted to assign roughly a 50% chance of Trump’s approval rating falling into each of those ranges, given a current approval rating of 40%. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Ebook written by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner. Book Review: Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction Why I liked “Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction” I thoroughly enjoyed this book and highly recommend it to everyone in the real estate industry (particularly developers who would benefit significantly from being able to better predict the future). Second, when Tetlock did get experts to anonymously make concrete, probabilistic predictions of global events, following the predictions of 284 experts over 20 years and amassing over 25,000 predictions, he found that the average expert didn’t do much better than anyone would do with random guessing. However, virtually nobody would claim there will be no sunrise tomorrow (at least in Stockholm we haven’t seen it during the last three weeks). As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. Predicting the future has always been attributed to either the smart or the paranormal – though, on a financial level, it is a skill that may be possible to forecast a … I usually rank my favorite books on a line between „extremely readable“ and „ very useful“. World-renowned behavioral scientist Tetlock (Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Couldn't have read at a better time as the year nears an end. I was asked to give probability estimates for four separate ranges: <30%, 31–40%, 41–50%, and >50%. July 2016; Risks 4(3):24; DOI: 10.3390/risks4030024. He pokes holes in his own biases (e.g. As an author, professor, and psychologist,... Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Goodreads helps you keep track of books you want to read. However, the majority of the book focuses on a US government intelligence project called IARPA, designed to use everyday citizens to make statistical predictions on real life events. This is really a book on epistemology: How do you manage uncertainty in a world with tons of it? In the forecasting arena these questions and their answers are key to producing accurate predictions. According to Tetlock and Gardner, what sets superforecasters apart from normal forecasters is, more than anything else, the mental habits that they execute when approaching forecasting questions. Used with permission. 31–40%: 86% Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Tetlock and Gardner begin the book by investigating the intuitive answer to the question of how to predict global events: just ask the experts. As these results have now so often been summarized, the average expert was “roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee”. This is essentially the superforecaster method in a nutshell: break down a forecasting question into more manageable parts; synthesize together the outside view, the inside view, and other perspectives to make an initial estimate; and then, finally, update forecasts in a level-headed manner in response to new information. This set my initial probability estimates for the ranges of <30% and >50% at 1% apiece. by Philip E. Tetlock ; Dan Gardner ‧ RELEASE DATE: Sept. 29, 2015. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. Read honest and unbiased product reviews from our users. Updating is a difficult component of the forecasting process, since you have to avoid both underreaction and overreaction to new information. To determine how likely this would be, a superforecaster would first take what is known as the “outside view”, ignoring the details of the particular case at hand and instead focusing on statistical rates across other similar situations. Superforecasting is an important read, and one that will leave you feeling like you’re sharing in privileged information that intelligence agencies worldwide will be mulling over in the future.